2025 is set to be the year of electric cars, according to a study conducted by Transport & Environment, the leading European non-governmental organization specializing in transport decarbonization. T&E predicts that electric vehicles will achieve a market share of between 20% and 24% by the end of the year, marking a significant increase from the 14% recorded in the first half of 2024. This shift will contribute 60% toward the EU’s CO₂ emissions reduction targets for 2025, representing a turning point for both market recovery, following the volatile 2022-2024 period, and the achievement of the environmental sustainability goals outlined in the Green Deal.

Electric cars in the 2024 automotive market

As highlighted by T&E, the European electric vehicle market experienced a phase of stagnation in 2024. While Rho Motion’s analysis recorded significant global success for BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) and PHEVs (Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles), with 1.7 million units sold, the largest statistical contribution came from the Chinese market. In Italy, however, June saw a 6.20% increase in sales compared to the same period in 2023, with 34,709 fully electric vehicle registrations, thanks to Ecobonus incentives, according to data from Motus-E.

The depletion of state incentives had a significant impact on the electric car market in the following months. However, some models, such as the Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3 and Volvo EX30, led the rankings, marking a modest recovery in September. National regulations also influenced the automotive market, particularly with the two MASE (Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security) decrees issued in March 2024, which approved the installation of nearly 21,000 charging stations for electric vehicles, an essential step in the decarbonization process outlined in the PNIEC (National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan).

Nevertheless, fluctuations in the electric car market primarily depend on consumer choices, with price being the most influential factor in purchase decisions. This is confirmed by a study conducted by the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO), where 57% of respondents stated they would like to buy an electric car, but high prices remain a barrier.

Other factors also play a role in the decision-making process, such as range anxiety—linked to the availability of charging infrastructure and vehicle autonomy—charging times, and general skepticism toward an emerging market that has yet to establish a strong cultural foothold. 

Why 2025 will be the year of electric cars

2025 marks a fresh start for the electric transition in Italy and Europe. As part of the Fit For 55 roadmap, the initial phase from 2021 to 2024 has come to an end. At the end of 2023, the
European Council adopted new, stricter measures to reduce CO₂ emissions from cars and trucks, targeting a -15% reduction between 2025 and 2029. This opens a new chapter for the electric vehicle market, driven by the European Union’s decarbonization goals.

This context fosters a stronger alignment with consumer needs, promoting more affordable electric vehicle models. According to T&E estimates, one in four new cars sold in 2025 will be electric, thanks to the commercialization of models priced under €25,000. Between 300,000 and 400,000 units are expected to enter the market, accounting for 10-15% of the BEV sector. While awaiting new incentives, motorists dreaming of an electric vehicle are presented with an appealing scenario to consider—one that looks ahead to 2035, when the ban on new gasoline and diesel car sales will take effect.

Most anticipated (affordable) models of the New Year

In this ongoing revolution of the electric market, automakers are experimenting with innovative designs and advanced technologies, offering consumers affordable models that don’t compromise on performance or aesthetics. So, which are the most anticipated budget-friendly models of 2025?

  • Tesla Model 2 (from €25.000): derived from the Model 3, featuring a 50 kWh battery and a 400 km range.
  • Cupra Raval (from €25.000): a city car with a 166 kWh battery and a 440 km range.
  • Volkswagen ID.2 (from €23.000): a compact sedan equipped with a 45 kWh battery and a 450 km range.
  • Citroën ë-C3 (from €23.000): the electric alternative to the C3, featuring a 44 kWh battery and a 320 km range.
  • Renault 4 and 5 (from €20.000): a compact city car available in two versions, one with a 52 kWh battery and a 400 km range and a more affordable option with a 40 kWh battery offering 300 km of range.
  • Škoda Epiq (from €20.000): a compact SUV with two battery options, 38 kWh and 56 kWh and a range of 400 km.

Future scenarios and strategies of automakers

As highlighted in T&E’s analysis, automakers tend to take a reactive rather than predictive approach to European CO₂ emission targets, acting mainly when regulatory requirements mandate change rather than proactively anticipating market demands. In the current phase—dominated by the pursuit of short-term profits and high-margin premium vehicles—prices remain high, and the rollout of more affordable electric models is progressing slowly.

However, with the upcoming 2025 decarbonization targets, a greater presence of hybrid models (MHEV, HEV, and PHEV) is expected on the market as an interim compliance solution, alongside the introduction of more accessible electric cars. This shift in strategy will not only help manufacturers meet environmental standards but also offer consumers choices that better align with their needs. Ultimately, this will bring the market closer to

increasingly sustainable mobility solutions, fostering a more inclusive and responsible transition toward the future of automobiles and environmental sustainability.